Governor Gavin Newsom proclaimed a statewide state of emergency on September 21, 2026, to prepare California for an El Niño season that federal forecasters say could reach historic strength. The order directs state agencies to stage flood-fighting supplies, prepare highways, and ready the National Guard before winter storms arrive.
Key Takeaways
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter, and a 75 percent chance it reaches historic strength.
- The proclamation directs state agencies to stage sandbags and pumps, pre-position equipment, and lead flood-risk-reduction work statewide.
- Caltrans will stage traffic-control, road-closure, and snow-removal equipment along the highways most at risk.
- The California National Guard is being readied for flood response, search-and-rescue, engineering, and logistics missions.
- Separate proclamations cover recovery in Glenn, Humboldt, Kern, Mendocino, and Santa Barbara counties, plus a major sewage spill in Lake County.
- The Governor also terminated 34 open states of emergency from 2023 and 2024 that were no longer needed.
Forecasters Put the Odds of a Historic El Niño at 75 Percent
The emergency order is based on strong federal forecasts. In its September ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reported that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event during the fall and winter of 2026-27. NOAA also raised the likelihood of a historic-strength event to 75 percent. It defines that as an event that could exceed any El Niño on record since 1950.
Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society reached a similar conclusion. Its mid-September outlook points to an exceptionally strong El Niño that stays firmly established through the end of 2026 and persists into spring 2027. For California, that suggests a long storm season rather than a brief peak.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific warm significantly, reversing the usual pattern and shifting storm tracks around the world. The Governor’s office cited a study published in Science in August finding that El Niño events are now more than 36 percent stronger than before the industrial era, with the trend accelerating over the past 40 years.
The Proclamation Moves Resources Into Place Before Storms Hit
The September 21 proclamation is designed to shorten response times. It streamlines state procurement and directs agencies to lead California’s flood-risk-reduction efforts, stage flood-fighting supplies such as sandbags and pumps, and pre-position critical equipment.
Caltrans will stage traffic-control, road-closure, and snow-removal equipment along the highways considered most vulnerable. The California National Guard will be prepared to support flood response, search-and-rescue, engineering, and logistics. State environmental and natural resources agencies are directed to fast-track permits and reduce red tape for local work on flooding, landslides, and debris flows.
“We are not waiting for this season’s storms to be on our doorstep,” said Cal OES Director Caroline Thomas Jacobs. The California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services will coordinate advance planning with state and local partners. It is also directed to expand accessible, multilingual public communications on emergency alerts, evacuation readiness, and power outages.
California Natural Resources Secretary Wade Crowfoot said the emergency declaration allows the state to speed up flood-protection work communities need now, before the heaviest storms arrive.
California’s Coast Is Already Feeling the Effects
The threat is not only theoretical. The Governor’s office noted that California has already seen coastal flooding this year linked to El Niño. Kelvin waves have raised sea levels, and offshore Pacific hurricanes fueled by warm eastern Pacific water have sent strong waves into the coastline.
The state warns that a very strong El Niño can bring repeated rounds of heavy rain, strong winds, mountain snow, flooding, landslides, debris flows, large waves, and coastal flooding. Coastal flooding is especially likely when storms coincide with very high tides. For residents, that can mean closed roads, power outages, isolated neighborhoods, and damage to homes and businesses.
Burn scars add another layer of risk. The state is urging residents to check whether homes or workplaces sit downslope of areas recently burned by wildfire, where heavy rain can increase the chance of debris flows and mudslides. In California, wildfire and flood seasons are closely linked.
Several Counties Are Still Recovering From Earlier Storms
The same day, Governor Newsom issued separate emergency proclamations for counties still recovering from earlier events. These cover February storms in Glenn, Humboldt, and Mendocino counties, September storms in Kern County, December storms in Santa Barbara County, and a major sewage spill in Lake County.
The Governor also signed a proclamation ending 34 open states of emergency from 2023 and 2024. After consulting with affected counties, the state determined those declarations were no longer needed for recovery. Clearing old declarations while opening a new one gives agencies a cleaner picture of where emergency authority is actually in use heading into winter.
The Economic Stakes Reach Beyond California
A very strong El Niño also carries economic consequences. In its September Interim Economic Outlook, the OECD listed weather-related supply shocks associated with a very strong El Niño among the key downside risks to global growth. The concern is disruption to crops, supply chains, and commodity prices in many regions at once.
In California, the stakes cover agriculture, transportation, and property. Prolonged storms can delay fieldwork and damage crops in major farm regions. Highway closures can disrupt freight on key corridors, and repeated flooding raises repair costs for homeowners, businesses, and local governments. Acting before storms arrive does not change the forecast, but it can reduce the cost of damage when storms hit.
State Officials Urge Residents to Prepare Early
El Niño does not guarantee a wet winter or any particular storm, but it increases the risk of strong storms in California. State guidance asks residents to sign up for local emergency alerts, check their flood risk, clear drains and gutters, and prepare an evacuation plan with an emergency kit that includes medications and supplies for pets.
The state also repeats a familiar warning: never drive through floodwater. Flooded roads can be deeper and faster-moving than they appear, and the pavement underneath may already be washed out.
FAQs
Why did Governor Newsom declare a state of emergency for El Niño?
Governor Newsom declared the emergency on September 21, 2026, to prepare for a forecast very strong El Niño. The order lets state agencies stage resources, streamline procurement, and speed up flood-prevention work before winter storms begin.
How strong is the 2026 El Niño expected to be?
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter. It gives a 75 percent chance the event reaches historic strength, exceeding previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.
What does El Niño mean for California weather?
A strong El Niño often brings more frequent and intense storms to California. Risks include heavy rain, flooding, landslides, debris flows, mountain snow, and coastal flooding, though no specific storm is guaranteed.
Which counties received separate emergency proclamations?
Separate proclamations cover storm recovery in Glenn, Humboldt, Kern, Mendocino, and Santa Barbara counties, along with a major sewage spill in Lake County.
How can Californians prepare for El Niño storms?
State officials recommend signing up for local emergency alerts, checking flood risk, clearing drains and gutters, making an evacuation plan, and keeping an emergency kit ready. Residents should never drive through floodwater.
